Central Asia’s Vast Biofuel Opportunity
The current revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have misshaped key oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers rarely step forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future global oil production. The Bush administration’s actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding brand-new reserves have the possible to toss governments’ long-term preparation into chaos.
Whatever the truth, increasing long term worldwide demands seem certain to outstrip production in the next years, especially given the high and rising expenses of developing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan’s overseas Kashagan and Brazil’s southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in financial investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.
In such a circumstance, additives and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing prices drive this innovation to the forefront, among the richest possible production areas has been completely ignored by investors already – Central Asia. Formerly the USSR’s cotton “plantation,” the region is poised to become a significant player in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured mainly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia’s ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.
Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom since of record-high energy rates, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising producer of natural gas.
Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have actually mostly hindered their capability to capitalize increasing worldwide energy needs up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mostly reliant for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, however their increased requirement to produce winter electrical power has caused autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn seriously affecting the agriculture of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
What these three downstream nations do have however is a Soviet-era legacy of farming production, which in Uzbekistan’s and Turkmenistan case was mostly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev’s “Virgin Lands” programs, has actually become a major manufacturer of wheat. Based upon my conversations with Central Asian federal government officials, provided the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have great appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser level Astana for those durable investors ready to wager on the future, particularly as a plant native to the area has already proven itself in trials.
Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is attracting increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with numerous European and American companies currently examining how to produce it in business amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historic test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the very first Asian provider to explore flying on fuel originated from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo’s Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month assessment of camelina’s operational performance capability and possible commercial viability.
As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to recommend it. It has a high oil material low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia’s thirsty “king cotton,” is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia’s significant wheat exporter. Another benefit of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will consist of 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is squandered as after processing, the plant’s particles can be used for animals silage. Camelina silage has an especially appealing concentration of omega-3 fats that make it a particularly fine animals feed prospect that is just now acquiring recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain’s Bangor University’s Centre for Alternative Land Use, “Camelina could be a perfect low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape.”
Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a new crop on the scene: historical proof indicates it has been cultivated in Europe for at least 3 millennia to produce both grease and animal fodder.
Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research, showed a broad range of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content varying in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been identified to be in the 6-8 pound per acre range, as the seeds’ little size of 400,000 seeds per lb can create problems in germination to accomplish an ideal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.
Camelina’s capacity could permit Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the country’s attempts at agrarian reform given that accomplishing self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government figured out that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow’s growing textile industry. The procedure was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also bought by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce “white gold.”
By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had become self-sufficient in cotton; 5 years later it had ended up being a significant exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world’s production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union’s output.
Try as it may to diversify, in the absence of options Tashkent remains wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million tons annually, which brings in more than $1 billion while making up around 60 percent of the nation’s hard cash income.
Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet federal government’s regulations for Central Asian cotton production mostly bankrupted the region’s scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet organizers to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the area’s 2 main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into ineffective watering canals, resulting in the dramatic shrinkage of the rivers’ final destination, the Aral Sea. The Aral, when the world’s fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has diminished to one-quarter its original size in among the 20th century’s worst ecological catastrophes.
And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University just recently explained camelina’s business design to Capital Press as: “At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would bring in $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would garner $230.”
Central Asia has the land, the farms, the watering facilities and a modest wage scale in contrast to America or Europe – all that’s missing is the foreign investment. U.S. financiers have the cash and access to the proficiency of America’s land grant universities. What is specific is that biofuel’s market share will grow with time; less certain is who will profit of establishing it as a feasible issue in Central Asia.
If the current past is anything to pass it is unlikely to be American and European investors, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.
But while the Japanese flight experiments suggest Asian interest, American investors have the academic competence, if they are prepared to follow the Silk Road into developing a brand-new market. Certainly anything that minimizes water use and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the lot of their agrarian population will get most mindful factor to consider from Central Asia’s governments, and farming and veggie oil processing plants are not only more affordable than pipelines, they can be developed faster.
And jatropha‘s biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.
